Open Workshop on Understanding and Predicting Annual to Multi-Decadal Climate Variations

As our planet faces increasingly frequent and intense climate anomalies and extreme weather events, the demand for accurate and reliable climate predictions across various time horizons has never been greater. While large-ensemble forecasting systems have demonstrated notable skill and are routinely operated by centers worldwide, significant challenges remain—particularly in understanding the foundations and limits of climate predictability.

Many key drivers of past and future climate variability continue to be misrepresented or poorly understood in current models, which undermines our confidence in both forecasts and long-term projections. To address this, an integrated approach that combines attribution and prediction is essential—one that seeks to identify the underlying drivers of forecast signals and assess model performance in simulating critical climate processes. Strengthening this understanding is especially vital for improving regional predictions of climate extremes.

This international workshop will explore climate variability on annual to multi-decadal timescales (1 to 30 years), offering a platform for researchers to present and discuss their work across a range of relevant topics. We welcome contributions that focus on:

• Skill assessment of climate predictions

• The role of external forcings and internal variability

• Mechanisms shaping climate predictability

• Prediction and predictability of extremes

• Innovative post-processing and modeling techniques

• Integrated attribution and prediction approaches

• Use of explainable AI and machine learning in climate science

The event is jointly organized by the Horizon Europe projects ASPECT, EXPECT, and I4C, in collaboration with the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), particularly the Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) and EPESC groups. By uniting these initiatives, the workshop also aims to foster new collaborations and strengthen synergies among the participating communities.

Workshop Sessions:

• Attributing and understanding past climate variability and extremes

• Forecast evaluation (including extremes, anomalies, trends, and predictability windows)

• Advances in prediction methods (e.g., modeling, initialization, AI/ML, post-processing)

• Representation of key predictability mechanisms in forecast systems

Scientific Organizing Committee:

Panos Athanasiadis, Roberto Bilbao, Remy Bonnet, Annalisa Cherchi, Markus Donat, Kirsten Findell, Noel Keenlyside, Wolfgang Müller, Dario Nicolì, Pablo Ortega, Scott Osprey, James Risbey, Jon Robson, Doug Smith, Lara Wallberg, Antje Weisheimer, Stephen Yeager

Submit an abstract

The deadline to submit a contribution is July 15th, 2025. Send your abstract via the dedicated portal.